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Lead in polls spurs talk of Bush coattails
Excerpted from the Washington Times
September 14, 2004
Republicans say that if President Bush maintains his strong post-convention poll numbers, he will provide coattails in key Senate races this November that eluded him in his narrow victory over Al Gore in 2000.
Those who stand to gain the most are Republicans in close, open-seat Senate races, such as Rep. Richard M. Burr in North Carolina and Pete Coors in Colorado , campaign strategists and pollsters said. Both men... are running in states where a strong showing by Mr. Bush could trickle down.
"It's historically unlikely that the president would win by 8 or 10 or 12 [percentage points] in some of these places and the Democratic candidate for Senate would win as well," Republican strategist Michael McKenna said.
What has changed in the new post-convention polls, some of which show Mr. Bush with a double-digit lead, is that supporters of Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry are now less likely to vote, Mr. McKenna said.
In 2000, Mr. Bush had no coattails, and in fact Republicans lost four Senate seats in that election. But in 2002, Mr. Bush, though not on the ballot, was instrumental in Republican candidates' wins over Democratic incumbents in Missouri and Georgia.
This time around, a strong showing by Mr. Bush also could have the effect of putting some Republican incumbents in the safe column, including Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and Sen. Christopher S. "Kit" Bond in Missouri....
...Republicans said Mr. Bush's good standing could help the party in Senate races in Louisiana , South Carolina , Oklahoma , South Dakota and Alaska .
"Coming into this cycle, we knew that Bush at the top of the ticket would be a benefit to a majority of our candidates running in the targeted states across the country, and that remains true through this day," said Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee....
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