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Note to: Interested Parties
From: Michael McKenna
Date: February 6, 2007
Re: Survey results on Climate Change
As you may know we recently (1/26 to 2/2) conducted a survey of 1000 registered voters that addressed, in part, the issue of climate change. The survey results, which are attached, have a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1%.
The results are fairly straightforward, but we wanted to note a few of the more salient points.
Taken in total, the results suggest a couple of things. While awareness of the issue is clearly rising, there is ample opportunity to better educate the public about the issue. Additionally, the public opinion context remains receptive to: 1) discussion of the flaws in the Kyoto approach (and the relative lack of adherence to the Protocol); 2) criticism of the mandatory approaches being circulated in the United States Congress; and 3) advocacy for a solution set that relies on the development and transfer of technology, innovation, and the development of markets for alternative approaches to the generation, creation, and use of energy.
More specifically . . .
- The environment as a suite of issues is still firmly entrenched in the lower range of issues. Just 3% of respondents identified the environment as the most important issue facing the United States right now. Only energy, taxes, and crime scored lower. At least for right now, it is all Iraq and all security all the time. Even when asked about the most important issues in the long-term, the environment was only identified by 7% of respondents, placing it in a 5-way tie for fifth place.
- Second, climate change has clearly become the top environmental priority both right now and in the long-term. More than a third (38%) of the respondents identified global warming as the most important environmental issue in both timeframes. Interestingly, despite its newfound visibility, it is identified as the top environmental priority only by a strong plurality of respondents (rather than an absolute majority).
- Third, by no means is there a majority, or even a plurality that favors government intervention into markets. Respondents, by a fairly significant margin (52% to 28%), favor the “softer” path of investment in technology over the “harder” path of mandated carbon reductions. This sentiment is consistent across demographic and ideological groups and is especially strong among those 18-35 years of age (who break 64% to 25% for the technology option). Similarly, respondents believe that the most likely solution will arise as a result of consumer demand and technological innovation rather than government action. Fewer than 3 in 10 (28%) thought that governments requiring reductions carbon emissions is most likely to lead the United States towards solutions to global warming.
- Fourth, there may be some misunderstanding or overestimation of the contributions of humans in the United States to global warming. About a third of the respondents think that Americans are responsible for at least half of the global warming. Given that, it is not surprising that the issue has surfaced rapidly as an important environmental priority.
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