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October 2003 Commentary 1
Despite 100 years of "progressive" government, designed to instruct the citizens of the republic that more government translates into a better Nation, the unreconstructed populace seems to retain a natural and healthy skepticism towards government. More particularly, schooled by unyielding lessons taught by history, people don't really seem to expect much from their legislators.
For example, as part of the October edition of The American Survey (conducted October 15-17 among 600 registered voters, margin of error 4.0%) we attempted to discover whether and to what extent voters cared about the dwindling agenda of the 108 th Congress. In short, they seem to care about Medicare reform (41% identify it as the agenda item Congress needs to finish before it goes home) and about the actual operation of the government (another 38% identify finishing spending and appropriations as the agenda item Congress needs to finish before it goes). Ironically enough, the two items most likely to be completed - the Iraq supplemental (10%) and energy bill (8%) - finished as distant also-rans.
On a note related to Medicare reform, it may be useful for all sides to understand that not all voters clearly apprehend who should be given the praise (or blame) if the reform package become law. Just one in ten said the President deserved most of the credit (which is about the same percentage as said that no one would deserve credit). Fifteen percent indicated the Congressional Republicans would deserve most of the credit. Almost twice as many (29%) said the Congressional Democrats would deserve the credit. These numbers were consistent across demographic and ideological groups and suggest to us that the efforts to brand this package as the President's (or the Republicans more generally) need to be stepped up a bit.
More importantly, we asked two questions examining general sentiments towards Congress. First, despite the steady flow of promotional material coming from some Republican pollsters, there seems to be plenty of dissatisfaction with Congressional performance. We found that just 30% of respondents said they were satisfied with Congressional performance, while 49% were dissatisfied. These numbers have eroded from last month's survey (42% satisfied, 44% dissatisfied), and suggests that whatever else may be happening, it is unlikely that Republican leadership of Congress is receiving completely unmixed reviews. And the sentiment is consistent across groups, with even self-identified conservatives relatively unhappy (33% satisfied/47% unsatisfied).
Second, and perhaps more tellingly, we asked respondents to characterize their sentiments if Congress simply passed the omnibus spending measure and went home without finishing work on anything else. A small portion said they would be relieved, a slightly larger fraction swung the other way and said they would be angry. But the largest group by far (63%) said they would be annoyed but not surprised.
In short, these results are yet another fragment of data that more or less confirms that voters have limited expectations and diffused enthusiasm about claimed or perceived accomplishments. While that rather unremarkable observation may be of some academic interest, those who work for and with Congress need to understand the context in which they operate. In an arena where the audience is mostly cynical and appears perpetually hostile, those agendas that are modest, well-articulated, and achievable will probably fare better than large, awkward, unwieldy policy efforts.
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