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Bent But Not Broken
February 2004
It's not surprising, given the recently concluded Democratic primary process and its emphasis on White House bashing that Mr. Bush finds seriously challenged in recent national horserace polls. Indeed, one of the President's chief campaign strategists, Mathew Dowd, has warned the party faithful for months Mr. Bush would find himself in exactly this situation once Democrats decided on a nominee.
Mr. Dowd was correct in his prediction, yet despite the tightening overall race, President Bush remains remarkably strong on several factors crucial to winning this November. The numbers also demonstrate why Democrats are trying desperately to undercut the President's credibility in fighting the war on terror. If, in November, voter electoral calculus turns on questions like "who can keep the country safer," Mr. Bush has a clear advantage. Those are the results of the February American Survey of 800 registered voters (3.5 margin of error).
We asked voters who they thought, President Bush or Senator Kerry, "would keep the country safer." By a large margin, 53%-37% voters chose the President. It's significant that the President holds this commanding 16% point advantage on this potentially pivotal electoral question when our poll shows the head-to-head race at a statistical dead heat (Our poll put Kerry ahead 47%-45%, a statistically insignificant margin).
The survey also uncovers a major difference between stated voter preferences - essentially a tie at this point in the head-to-head match up - and "who they think will win." When we asked voters who they think will win, President Bush surges ahead by a very healthy 12% margin, (51%-39%).
Finally, Republicans are much more confident in President Bush's chances of winning the election than Democrats are in Senator Kerry's prospects. Breaking down the previous question by party reveals nearly one third of the Democrats (28%) think President Bush will win compared to only 11% of the Republicans betting on Kerry.
Historically asking voters who they think will win is a pretty solid predictor of the final outcome. After riding high in the aftermath of securing the nomination, Senator Kerry is hoping history is wrong.
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