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November 2003 Commentary 3
Now that Congress has gone into an abbreviated hibernation until mid-January, it seems appropriate to assess the session just finished and anticipate the session to come. In the November edition of The American Survey (conducted 11/18-11/20 among 600 registered voters, margin of error 4.0%) we asked the voters to do just that.
Despite some mixed feelings about the performance of Congress this year, voters have a very clear idea of what Congress should work on next year. They also appear to have some very definitive ideas about the most important issues facing the Nation, and interestingly, there is a dichotomy between what voters believe to be important and what they want Congress to work on next year.
More specifically, voters quite rightly (we think) identify the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq as the two most pressing issues facing the United States . The economy is the third choice. This strikes us as interesting for a few reasons. First, we note that voters clearly bifurcated the war on terrorism and the war on Iraq . This suggests that they have come to understand (or are beginning to understand) that the two efforts are perceptibly different. Quite probably a product of energetic media and Democratic efforts to delineate the two wars, such a belief cannot be good news for an Administration seeking ways to justify the excursion into Iraq .
On a sunnier note for the Administration, we note that the economy has slipped into a distant third (45% of respondents indicated that it was either their most or second most important issue). This is probably because the economy is clearly starting to climb out of the ditch, and the issue, therefore, has lost some of its sharp edge.
Finally, it is interesting to note that health care, which tops the list of issues that voters would like to see Congress address, only finishes fourth overall. It seems that the American voters would rather Congress not involve itself in the war on Iraq, the war on terrorism, or the economy, but are sanguine about them mucking around in health care issues. We believe this has two clear implications.
First, given the enthusiasm for health care as a Congressional issue, it seems likely that the Medicare reform legislation passed this session will be viewed by some as a beginning, rather than an end.
Second, voters believe that the important work of the Republic resides with the Administration, rather than Congress. As we have noted before, this intellectual approach to the 2004 election presents some very real hurdles for the eventual Democratic nominee. While relatively minor issues -- like health care -- are excellent grist for Congressional elections, those who seek to be President need to be prepared to address the more important issues of peace and war and prosperity.
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