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November 2003 Commentary 2
Recently, as part of their ongoing effort to educate voters about the true and complete nature of Democratic Party opposition to certain of President Bush's judicial nominees, the Republicans in the United States Senate staged a rare all-night debate. Despite our initial expectations, and those of the endlessly chattering pundits, we found that a significant fraction of voters were aware of the debate, and, more importantly, that Republican efforts to drive this issue seem to be working. Those are the conclusions that we draw from the November edition of The American Survey (conducted November 18-20 among 600 registered voters, 4.0% margin of error).
More specifically, in an attempt to measure the attention of voters, we asked whether voters were aware of the recent all-night debate. We were surprised that almost three-fifths (57%) said they were, and about two-fifths (39%) correctly identified judicial nominations as the subject of the proceedings.
This surprising level of knowledge about Congressional activities also was present more generally. For instance, when asked to identify a major achievement of Congress this year, about 40 percent of the respondents managed to volunteer either Medicare reform, tax cuts, improving national security, or some other discrete accomplishment.
Finally, we wanted to determine progress (or lack thereof) on the issue of judicial nominations. In April's survey, we asked whether the Democrats' attempts to prevent votes on the judicial nominations were an appropriate exercise of their rights under the Senate rules or simple obstructionism. In that survey, 55% said it was an appropriate exercise of their rights, just 38% said it was obstructionism. We asked the question again in November's survey. This time, the numbers switched; with 48% saying it is obstructionism and 36% saying it is a proper exercise of their rights.
It is difficult to imagine that the numbers changed sua sponte ; the switch is very likely a product of the steady and patient communications effort of the Republicans, as well as the continued vocal, unapologetic, and sometimes embarrassing opposition of the Democrats to nominees whose sole defect is that they are insufficiently obsequious to the political status quo.
At any rate, we believe that the shift in attitudes about judicial nominees, taken together with the more general issue awareness, suggest a couple of things. First, despite our initial expectations (and despite the traditional role of the White House as the center of political communication in this Nation), it seems plausible to conclude that steady, patient effort on the part of Congressional leadership can result in some message permanence among voters. Second, it may be possible for the Republicans to use the permanently stalled half dozen judicial nominations to impress the voters that the Democrats are, at best, interested mostly in obstructing, and, at worst, not very interested in fair play, straight up or down votes, and all that jazz.
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